In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.39/$, after closing unchanged yesterday (R16.40/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the PEN (+0.4%), THB (+0.2%) and TRY (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-2.1%), HUF (-1.3%) and BRL (-1.0%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.   

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has hiked rates by 50 bps, to 3%.
• The bank noted that it is appropriate to continue tightening policy at a suitable pace to maintain price stability and contribute to maximum sustainable employment.
• The central bank now sees the cash rate peaking at 4.1% in Q2:23; the bank had envisioned the rate topping out at 3.95% in Q3:23.
• New Zealand’s 2.75 percentage points of hikes in the past 10 months are the most aggressive tightening cycle it has delivered since its inflation targeting regime began more than 3 decades ago. 
• Its cycle currently exceeds the US Fed and the Bank of Canada’s 2.25 percentage points hikes.

• The UK CPI for July is expected to have increased to 9.8% y/y in July, from 9.4% in June.
• This likely due largely to rising food, services and energy costs.
• Core inflation is expected to have increased to 5.9% y/y in July, from 5.8% y/y in June.
• The BOE sees inflation remaining below 10% in the coming months, and increasing to a peak of 13.3% in October when household energy bills are due to increase.

• The US retail sales for July are due out today and likely increased by 0.1% m/m, after having increased by 1.0% m/m in June.
• Sales, excluding autos and gasoline, may have risen by 0.4% m/m in July after increasing by 0.7% m/m in June.
• The drop in gasoline prices in July likely allowed consumers to reroute some spending elsewhere.

• Locally, retail sales for June are expected to have fallen by 0.1% y/y, following a 0.1% y/y gain in May.
• Retail sales are expected to have declined by 0.2% m/m in June, after having fallen by 1.0% m/m in May.

• Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 19.6% year-to-date.
• The gold price is up this morning, and down by 2.7% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $92.99/bbl; ($92.34/bbl*).
• Gold is at $1780/oz ($1776/oz*).
• SA CDS 263bps*, Brazil 253bps* and Turkey 723bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 2.80%*, German bund at 0.97%* and SA 10-year generic at 10.55%*, SA’s R186 at 8.65%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

 Key events and data: 

• 08h00: UK CPI, PPI, RPI (July)
• 10h30: UK house price index (June)
• 11h00: Eurozone employment (Q2:22), GDP (Q2:22)
• 13h00: SA retail sales (June)
• 13h00: US MBA mortgage applications (12 August)
• 14h30: US retail sales (July)
• 16h00: US business inventories (June)
• 20h00: US FOMC meeting minutes (27 July) 

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