In the loop 04 December 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.06/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.04/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+1.3%), PLN (+0.8%) and CZK (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the PHP (-0.7%), INR (-0.4%) and TRY (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

ECB President Christine Lagarde yesterday said that Eurozone inflation is likely to stay close to the ECB’s target, for now.
Lagarde noted that headline inflation is near 2% and underlying pressures are broadly aligned with achieving the goal over the medium term.
She cautioned, however, that risks around the outlook remain two-sided and that uncertainty is unusually high due to volatile global trade policies.
Policymakers have indicated they see no urgent need to adjust interest rates further.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane echoed Lagarde’s view that price risks are balanced.
He noted that earlier projections, driven by low energy inflation, suggested inflation would dip below target in the early months of next year.
However, he added that some recent data have moved in the opposite direction.

The UK Decision Maker Panel’s (DMP) October survey results on inflation expectations for November will be released today.
The three-month inflation expectation currently stands at 3.7%, while the one-year outlook is at 3.4%.

The US ISM services index rose to 52.6 in November, from 52.4 in October.
Business activity strengthened, while new orders eased slightly, to 52.9, but remained in expansion.
The prices paid index fell to 65.4, indicating that services sector input prices increased at a slower pace.
The employment index remained in contraction but showed a modest improvement.
Industrial production edged up 0.1% m/m in September after a 0.3% decline in August.
Manufacturing output stagnated in September, following a 0.2% increase the previous month.

Locally, the current account for Q3:25 is scheduled for release today; the deficit is expected to have widened to 1.2% of GDP in Q3:25, from a deficit of 1.1% of GDP in Q2:25.
Electricity production and consumption for October are due for release.

The SARB announced yesterday that the Johannesburg Interbank Average Rate (JIBAR) will be permanently discontinued, with its final publication to occur on 31 December 2026.
From that date onwards, JIBAR will no longer be representative.
The transition will shift South Africa’s benchmark rate system to the South African Rand Overnight Index Average (ZARONIA).

Brent crude oil is currently at $62.94/bbl; ($62.67/bbl*).
Gold is at $4198/oz ($4203/oz*).
SA CDS 140bps*, Brazil 136bps* and Turkey 227bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.07%*, German bund at 2.74%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.44%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.33%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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