Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Corporate Commissioned Research
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
The SA Daily 10 December 2019

Spending less and less

  • The official household consumption expenditure growth data having moderated from last year’s levels confirms a constrained SA consumer.
  • Nominal house price growth in 2019 has trended sideways, averaging 4.1% y/y YTD thus far (5.5% in 2018). We forecast house price growth of 5.0% in 2020 and 5.3% in 2021 — but the risks are heavily to the downside.
  • Real house price growth is clearly a long way off amid SA’s deteriorating fiscus, the unavoidable Moody’s downgrade early next year, and widespread power cuts that have become increasingly severe.
  • The national median house price, per our inhouse Standard Bank House Price Index (HPI), was R1,027,652 in November, with median property prices for two-bedroom; three-bedroom; and four-bedroom houses at R656,827; R1,240,658 and R2,217,732 respectively. Growth in property prices for two-bedroom houses remains constrained; real growth has been negative for 12 months now due to constrained demand from low- and middle-income households.
  • After troughing at -0.5% y/y in April 2019, growth in property prices for four-bedroom houses recovered to 8.1% y/y by October 2019, but with data for November showing a moderate retreat to 6.8% y/y. Still, this is higher than the 2.1% y/y average growth recorded between January to September this year, which shows still reasonable demand from the higher-income groups.

Read PDF