In the loop 06 November 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.38/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.39/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BRL (+0.8%), ZAR (+0.6%) and COP (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the PHP (-0.5%), RUB (-0.4%) and TWD (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central Bank Watch: the Swedish Riksbank kept its policy rate unchanged at a three-year low of 1.75% yesterday, as was widely expected.
Policymakers reiterated that the policy rate is likely to remain at this level “for some time to come” to support economic activity and stabilise inflation.
The decision reaffirmed the central bank’s previous guidance.
The BOE is expected to hold interest rates steady today, breaking its recent pattern of quarterly rate cuts.
Policymakers have indicated that further easing is unlikely until there is clear evidence of a sustained downtrend in inflation, which is only likely by April next year.
Malaysia’s central bank is also anticipated to keep its benchmark rate unchanged later today.

The UK Decision Maker Panel’s (DMP) October survey results on inflation expectations will be released today.
The three-month inflation expectation currently stands at 3.7%, while the one-year outlook is at 3.4%.
In the Eurozone, September retail sales data is due later today, with annual growth expected to slow slightly to 0.9% y/y, from 1.0% y/y in August.
On a m/m basis, sales are likely to have risen 0.2% in September, after a 0.1% increase in August.

World Economic Forum (WEF) President Børge Brende cautioned yesterday that the global economy should remain alert to three potential market bubbles — in cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence, and debt.
His comments followed sharp declines in global technology stocks.

The US ISM services PMI rose strongly in October, expanding at the fastest pace in eight months; the index increased to 52.4 in October, from 50 in September.
The increased was supported by robust growth in new orders, which climbed 5.8 pts, to a one-year high of 56.2.
The business activity index rebounded into expansion, rising 4.4 pts, to 54.3 in October.
Employment conditions also showed signs of stabilising in October.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran yesterday described the ADP private sector payrolls report, which showed a 42,000 increase in private payrolls in October, as “a welcome surprise.”
The ADP data has taken on added significance as the ongoing US government shutdown continues to delay the release of official economic figures.
Miran reiterated his view that interest rates need to be lower, maintaining his call for a more accommodative policy stance.
He has consistently advocated for deeper rate cuts over the past two FOMC meetings.
Miran continues to argue that monetary policy is overly restrictive, relative to the economy’s neutral rate.
He warned that such tight conditions could weigh on employment and broader economic activity.

Locally, electricity production and consumption for September are scheduled for release today.

Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 14.6% year-to-date.
Gold prices strengthened yesterday as a broader risk-off sentiment across global financial markets boosted demand for safe-haven assets.
The gold price is up this morning, and up by 52.0% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $63.77/bbl; ($63.52/bbl*).
Gold is at $3989/oz ($3980/oz*).
SA CDS 152bps*, Brazil 141bps* and Turkey 244bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.16%*, German bund at 2.67%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.89%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.77%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF