In the loop 28 August 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.68/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.67/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+0.6%), ARS (+0.3%) and BRL (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the IDR (-0.4%), MYR (-0.4%) and RON (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.

Central bank watch: the minutes of the ECB’s 23-24 July monetary policy meeting are due out today.
Investors will watch for clues on the timing of the bank’s next move.
The Bank of Korea has kept its benchmark interest rate steady, at 2.5%, as expected.
The BOK cited the need to monitor developments in the housing market as well as the impact of US tariffs.

EU industry chief Stéphane Séjourné yesterday said the bloc’s trade deal with the US would “have to be reviewed” if the US insists on its demands for the EU to deregulate its tech sector.
Earlier this week, President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on countries that maintain regulatory and/or tax measures targeting US technology companies.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday after US data revealed a larger-than-expected decline in crude inventories.
Markets also considered the impact of renewed trade tensions between the US and India.
President Trump has announced a 50% tariff on a range of Indian goods, arguing that the country’s continued purchases of Russian oil were helping to finance Russia’s war against Ukraine.
India strongly defended its energy ties with Russia, and criticized Trump’s move as “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable”.
The new tariff, which took effect yesterday, doubled the existing 25% duty on Indian exports.

The US GDP for Q2:25 (second estimate) may continue to show that growth was driven primarily by lower imports.
GDP is expected to come in at 3.1% q/q in Q2:25, slightly up from the previous estimate of 3.0% q/q, and a 0.5% q/q decline in Q1:25.
Stronger retail sales in the quarter could lead to an upward revision to consumer spending.

Locally, PPI for July is expected to come in at 1.4% y/y, after having increased by 0.6% y/y in June.
On a m/m basis, PPI is expected to have increased by 0.7% in July, following a 0.2% y/y increase in June.

The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) has approved higher electricity tariff increases for Eskom over the next two financial years, following a settlement reached between the two parties.
Eskom had sought a judicial review of NERSA’s January decision, which granted tariff increases below the utility’s request.
Under the settlement, NERSA acknowledged Eskom’s entitlement to recover additional revenue, though not the full amount claimed as a shortfall.
The 12.7% tariff hike already approved for the current financial year remains in place.
However, Eskom will recover the additional revenue in subsequent years.
Electricity tariffs are now set to increase by 8.76% in the next financial year (up from 5.36%) and by 8.83% the following year (up from 6.19%).

Brent crude oil is currently at $67.43/bbl; ($68.05/bbl*).
Gold is at $3390/oz ($3397/oz*).
SA CDS 175bps*, Brazil 139bps* and Turkey 264bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.23%*, German bund at 2.70%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.67%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.58%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF