In the loop 23 September 2025

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is trading at R17.36/$ this morning, after closing at R17.35/$ yesterday.
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ARS (+4.6%), HUF (+0.7%) and CZK (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-0.4%), INR (-0.2%) and BRL (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Central bank watch: the Riksbank will make its rate announcement this morning.
Since cutting rates in June, the bank faces accelerating consumer inflation amid a still-stalling economy.
The bank will likely keep the decision rate unchanged at 2.00% today; it could, however, be a close call between holding steady and cutting by a further 25 bps.

A slew of PMI data for September will be released today.
The Eurozone HCOB manufacturing and services PMIs likely remained roughly stable, and in expansion, in September.
The August reading was the first move above the 50-mark for the region’s manufacturing PMI since 2022.
Eurozone consumer confidence improved in September; the index rose to -14.9, from -15.5 in August.
The September UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI is expected to still be stuck below 50.
The UK S&P Global services PMI is likely to show a slower rate of expansion in September after recording the highest level since April 2024 in August, at 54.2.
The composite US S&P Global PMI is expected around 54.0, with both the manufacturing and services sectors likely expanding at a slightly slower pace in September.

The US current account deficit for Q2:25 is due today.
The deficit likely shrunk markedly in Q2:25, to around $256.6bn, from $450.2bn in Q1:25.
In Q1:25, the deficit was 44.3% wider than in Q4:24 when it was $320.0bn.
This was on the back of a widening in the goods trade deficit during Q1:25.

Locally, the SARB will release composite business cycle indicators this morning.
The focus will be on the leading indicator for July and movements within the component time series.
The leading indicator increased 0.4% m/m in June, to 111.7, from 111.3 in May.
Six-month smoothed money supply (M1), the export commodity price index and leading indicators of SA’s main trading partners contributed positively to the leading indicator in June.
In y/y terms, the leading indicator was 0.5% lower in June.
The interest rate spread, six-month smoothed new passenger vehicles, building plans approved and six-month smoothed job advertisements contributed negatively to the leading indicator in June.
The coincident and lagging indicators, for May, also improved on a m/m basis.

Brent crude oil is currently at $66.30/bbl; ($66.57/bbl*).
Gold is at $3755/oz ($3747/oz*).
SA CDS 167bps*, Brazil 138bps* and Turkey 259bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.15%*, German bund at 2.75%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.23%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.11%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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