In the loop 30 September 2025

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is trading at R17.26/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.28/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the KRW (+0.7%), RUB (+0.6%) and BRL (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-2.1%), CLP (-0.7%) and COP (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central Bank watch: the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this morning kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, at 3.60%.
The bank noted that the decline in underlying inflation has slowed and that inflation is therefore currently higher than expected.
However, domestic economic activity has been recovering, albeit that the outlook remains uncertain.

The US is inching closer to a government shutdown.
Republican and Democrat leaders failed to reach an agreement over how to fund federal agencies during a meeting with President Trump.
Democrats said “large differences” remained; they continue to push for concessions on health-care funding.
Vice President Vance has accused Democrats of using “policy disagreements as leverage”.

The White House has announced new US tariffs on wood and furniture.
The US will apply levies of 10% on timber and lumber and 25% on kitchen cabinets and upholstered wood furniture, from 14 October, under the Section 232 law allowing tariffs to counter a national security threat.
These duties will escalate to 30% on furniture and 50% on cabinets in January next year unless countries negotiate a deal with the US.

Japan’s economic activity data for August was quite weak.
Industrial production declined 1.2% m/m in August, matching July’s decline; industrial production was down 1.3% y/y in August, from -0.4% y/y in July.
The larger than expected decline in industrial production in August might be a sign that the impact of US tariffs are starting to play out.
Retail sales growth also disappointed in August, with sales contracting by 1.1% in m/m and y/y terms.
While inflation has been slowing, it is still outpacing wage growth, thereby weighing on consumer disposable income.
Japan’s housing starts saw a bigger-than-expected drop in August; housing starts were down 9.8% y/y in August, after declining 9.7% y/y in July.

China’s PMI data pointed to some improvement in the manufacturing sector in September.
The official manufacturing PMI remained in contraction, now for a sixth month running, but improved slightly, to 49.8 in September, from 49.4 in August.
The non-manufacturing PMI edged lower, to the neutral 50-mark in September, from 50.3 in August; this saw the official composite PMI at 50.6 in September, from 50.5 in August.
Private PMI data was more upbeat; the RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose, from 50.5 in August, to 51.2 in September.
This survey saw new export orders returning to growth for the first time since March 2025; the private PMI data sample includes more small and export-oriented firms than the official PMI.
The RatingDog services PMI was 52.9 in September, down slightly from 53.0 in August.

Locally, a slew of data will be released today.
Private sector credit extended and M3 money supply for August is due this morning; private sector credit growth was 5.8% y/y in July.
The Quarterly Employment Survey (QES), SA’s non-farm payrolls equivalent, for Q2:25 is due out.
The SARB will release its September Quarterly Bulletin this morning, with the full set of national accounts data to Q2:25.
Household disposable income as well as debt and debt-service cost-to-income ratios will provide further information on the state of the consumer.
The monthly trade data for August is likely to show a slightly smaller trade surplus.
National Treasury will release the monthly budget data for August today; trends in revenue, expenditure and the budget balance will be closely watched.

Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 9.5% year-to-date.
The gold price is up this morning, and up by 47.3% year-to-date; gold has been recording its largest annual gain since 1979 this year.
Fears of a US government shutdown has supported the recent scaling of new record highs for the gold price.

Brent crude oil is currently at $67.58/bbl; ($67.97/bbl*).
Gold is at $3866/oz ($3834/oz*).
SA CDS 149bps*, Brazil 130bps* and Turkey 247bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.02%*, German bund at 2.69%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.34%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.23%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF