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In the loop 25 August 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.46/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R17.44/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the ZAR (+1.7%), CLP (+1.3%) and KRW (+1.2%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-0.6%), IDR (-0.4%) and INR (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • Central bank watch: the minutes of the ECB’s 23-24 July monetary policy meeting are due out on Thursday. 
  • Investors will watch for clues on the timing of the bank’s next move.
  • The Bank of Korea is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.5% on Thursday.
 
  • The German IFO sentiment index for August is due out today; the sentiment index will likely reflect how earlier euphoria is being overshadowed by US trade policies.
  • Preliminary inflation data from major Eurozone economies for August will be released this week.
 
  • US new home sales for July are due out today and likely improved, by 0.5% m/m, after increasing by 0.6% m/m in June.
  • The S&P CoreLogic house price index for June is scheduled for release tomorrow; home prices likely decelerated further in June.
  • The Conference Board consumer confidence for August is also due out tomorrow; consumer confidence likely deteriorated slightly in August.
  • The University of Michigan sentiment index noted consumers as concerned about inflation.
  • They are particularly concerned about living standards being eroded by high prices.
  • The University of Michigan sentiment index for August (final estimate) is expected at 58.6, from 61.7 in July.
  • The Q2:25 GDP (second estimate) may continue to show that growth was driven primarily by lower imports.
  • The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is due out on Friday.
  • The core PCE deflator is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in July. 
 
  • Locally, the SARB’s leading indicator for June is due out tomorrow; the index fell to 111.3 in May.
  • The July PPI on Thursday is expected to come in at 1.5% y/y, after having increased by 0.6% y/y in June.
  • The M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for July are scheduled for release on Friday.
  • PSCE came in at 4.98% y/y in June, matching the increase in May. 
  • The monthly Budget balance data for July is also due out; the budget deficit came in at R48.7bn in June. 
  • The July trade balance is scheduled for release on Friday; a trade surplus of R22.0bn in June was reported, from R20bn in May. 
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 9.2% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 28.2% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $67.75/bbl; ($67.73/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3364/oz ($3371/oz*).
  • SA CDS 174bps*, Brazil 139bps* and Turkey 265bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.25%*, German bund at 2.72%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.66%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.56%*.
 

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 10h00: Germany IFO business climate (August)
  • 16h00: US new home sales (July)
 

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