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In the loop 20 October 2021

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is unchanged this morning, at R14.51/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R14.51/$*).
  • EM currencies were largely up yesterday; the ZAR (+0.7%), CLP (+0.2%) and CNY (+0.2%) were amongst the biggest gainers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
  • Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 242.33 million, while the death toll has surpassed 4.92 million; recoveries are at 219.68 million.
  • The US has 45.99 million cases, accounting for 18% of global cases; the US death toll is 748,652. 
  • India has 34.10 million cases and 452,684 deaths; Brazil has 21.66 million cases and 603,902 deaths.
  • Infections in Singapore have hit a one-day record of almost 4,000.
  • The US is expected to recommend booster shots for those aged 40 and over.
  • The US CDC has noted the Pfizer vaccine as effective at preventing hospitalisations among teens. 
  • Moscow will be ordering unvaccinated seniors to remain home for four months.
  • Fed Governor Christopher Waller has advocated for tapering to begin in November; Waller does not expect rate hikes anytime soon.
  • Waller expects US inflation to moderate, which implies that a hiking cycle is still a while away.
  • He remarked, however, that should inflation remain above the 2% target well into 2022, he'd favour tightening sooner.
  • Eurozone and UK CPI for September are due out today.
  • The second estimate for Eurozone CPI is expected at 3.4% y/y for September, from 3.0% y/y in August. 
  • UK inflation is expected at 3.2% y/y for September, the same as August.
  • Sharp price increases are expected in October as the latest energy price hike takes effect.
  • Russian CPI, also due today, is expected to have increased.
  • Accelerating prices are likely to prompt the Bank of Russia on Friday to continue tightening monetary policy.
  • SA has the 17th highest caseload, at 2.917 million; 453 new cases were reported yesterday.
  • Active cases are at 20,421; KwaZulu-Natal leads the way, with 6,409 active cases, followed by the Western Cape with 4,835.
  • Covid-19 deaths rose by 50 yesterday, to 88,674; 2.80 million people (or 96.3%) have recovered from the virus.
  • 18.217 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 28,339 tests were conducted yesterday.
  • The SA positivity rate is 1.6%.
  • 20.580 million vaccines have been administered to date; 185,440 vaccines were administered yesterday.
  • Brent crude oil is down this morning, and up by 63.3% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and down by 6.5% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $84.63/bbl; ($85.08/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1774/oz ($1769/oz*).
  • SA CDS 208bps*, higher than Brazil 208bps* and lower than Turkey 447bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 1.63%*, German bund at -0.106%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.82%*, SA’s R186 at 7.92%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 08h00: UK CPI, PPI, RPI (September)
  • 10h00: SA CPI (September)
  • 10h00: Eurozone current account balance (August)
  • 10h30: UK house price index (August)
  • 11h00: Eurozone CPI (September)
  • 13h00: US MBA mortgage applications (15 October)
  • 20h00: US Fed Beige Book

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