Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Corporate Commissioned Research
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
The SA Daily 05 March 2018

SA GDP the focus

  • SA’s Q4:17 GDP is due out tomorrow; we expect a moderation to 1.7% q/q (saar), from 2% q/q in Q3:17, which implies growth of 0.9% y/y for 2017. From the expenditure side, we expect consumption to have made the biggest contribution to economic growth in 2017, averaging 1.4%.
  • We expect 2017 consumer spending to have been supported by a moderation in inflation, which should see some recovery in cyclical consumption (spending on durable and semi-durable goods), with spending on durable goods in particular recovering, from very depressed levels in 2016 (-7.3%), to an estimated -0.5% in 2017. Non-cyclical consumption (spending on non-durable goods and services) is expected to have held steady around 1.4% in 2017.
  • We expect modestly stronger support for consumer spending from credit extension in 2018, coupled with our expectation of lower interest rates. Although not much is expected from employment growth, lower average inflation should provide some support for real wage growth in 2018.

Read PDF