In the loop 31 October 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.29/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.27/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+0.3%) and PEN (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the ZAR (-1.1%), PLN (-0.9%) and HUF (-0.8%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

China’s factory activity contracted further in October, marking its longest downturn in more than nine years as the economy lost momentum heading into Q4:25.
The official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0, down from 49.8 in September.
The non-manufacturing PMI edged up slightly, to 50.1, from 50.0.
The composite PMI slipped to 50.0, compared with 50.6 in September.
The slowdown in manufacturing was attributed partly to the eight-day public holiday and persistent global economic uncertainty.
Trade tensions with the US also intensified in October, though a deal reached this week, and the promise of tariff relief, offer some respite for China’s slowing economy.

Chinese President Xi Jinping today urged Asia-Pacific leaders to reinforce multilateralism and openness.
Speaking at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, Xi called on countries to “work together” amid rising global uncertainty and to uphold the World Trade Organization (WTO) trading system.
He emphasised the need to “adhere to the correct direction of WTO reform”.
He further urged countries to “uphold key principles such as most-favoured-nation treatment and non-discrimination, and advance the modernisation of international trade and economic rules”.
Xi also underscored the importance of deeper cooperation in digital trade, green industries, and inclusive development across the region.

Japan’s economy is showing tentative signs of improvement.
The latest inflation data for the Tokyo metropolitan area, often seen as a leading indicator of nationwide trends, showed that a key measure of price growth remained above the BOJ’s inflation target.
Despite persistent inflation, consumer spending picked up in September.
Retail sales rose 0.5% y/y in September, reversing a 0.9% decline in August.
Industrial production also strengthened, rising 2.2% m/m in September, after a 1.5% m/m decline in August.
The stronger activity data suggest that Q3:25 GDP may show a smaller contraction than previously expected.
Japan’s unemployment rate remained steady, at 2.6% in September.

UK Nationwide house price index for September is due out today; house prices likely rose in September, driven by improving affordability.
House prices are likely to have increased by 2.3% y/y in September, after having increased by 2.2% y/y in August.
Eurozone inflation for October, also scheduled for release today, is likely to come in at 2.1% y/y, down from 2.2% y/y in September.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.2% in October, following a 0.1% increase in September.

Locally, the September trade balance is scheduled for release today; a trade surplus of R6.9bn in September is expected, up from a surplus of R4.0bn in August.

Brent crude oil is currently at $64.54/bbl; ($65.00/bbl*).
Gold is at $4000/oz ($4024/oz*).
SA CDS 151bps*, Brazil 138bps* and Turkey 245bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.09%*, German bund at 2.64%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.97%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.85%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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