In the loop 10 November 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is s stronger his morning, at R17.27/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R17.30/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the ARS (+2.2%), MXN (+0.9%) and RUB (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the KRW (-0.8%), TWD (-0.3%) and CLP (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

A raft of economic data from China is due this week, likely highlighting continued weakness in the economy.
Indicators such as industrial output, retail sales, and fixed investment are expected to confirm a further loss of momentum.
Credit growth likely slowed as both government and bank lending moderated.

UK labour market data, due tomorrow, is likely to show a further slowdown in private sector wage growth for the three months to September.
Private sector pay growth is expected to ease to 4.2% y/y, down from 4.4% y/y, extending a recent downward trend.
The UK GDP data for Q3:25, scheduled for release on Thursday, are likely to confirm that the economy has returned to a more subdued pace of growth.
GDP is expected to have expanded by 0.2% q/q in Q3:25, following a 0.3% q/q increase in Q2:25.
The Eurozone monthly trade data for September, due on Friday, will provide further insight into external demand dynamics.
The trade surplus with the US narrowed to a seasonally adjusted €8.1bn in August, from €8.7bn in July, as exports declined faster than imports.

As the US government shutdown extends into its sixth week, several key economic releases, including CPI, PPI, retail sales and business inventories, will be delayed.
The October CPI report will not be released as scheduled this week, since no data was collected during the government shutdown.
The US Senate voted 60–40 to advance a bill aimed at ending the government shutdown, with a group of Democrats breaking ranks with party leaders to support the measure.
Even if the government were to reopen soon, it’s unlikely that the Bureau of Labor Statistics would have enough time to gather and process data for both the October and November CPI reports before the December FOMC meeting.
The US NFIB small business optimism index scheduled for release on Wednesday, likely edged down to 98.4 in October, from 98.8 in September.

Locally, Stats SA releases the Quarterly Labour Force Survey tomorrow for Q3:25; the unemployment rate increased to 33.2% in Q2:25.
Manufacturing production for September is also due out tomorrow; production is expected to have increased by 0.1% y/y in September, after having declined by 1.5% y/y in August.
On a m/m basis, manufacturing production is likely to have increased by 0.7% in September, following a 0.4% increase in August.
Mining production for September is due out on Thursday; production is expected to have flatlined, following a 0.2% y/y decrease in August.
Mining production declined by 1.2% m/m in August.

Brent crude oil is currently at $64.14/bbl; ($63.63/bbl*).
Gold is at $4059/oz ($4001/oz*).
SA CDS 155bps*, Brazil 147bps* and Turkey 248bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.13%*, German bund at 2.66%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.92%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.80%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF