In the loop 24 January 2022

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R15.09/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R15.10/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the COP (+0.6%), CLP (+0.5%) and ZAR (+0.4%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.0%), TRY (-1.0%) and HUF (-0.6%) were amongst the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 352.12 million, while the death toll has breached 5.61 million; recoveries are at 269.85 million.
The US has 71.92 million cases, accounting for 19% of global cases; the US death toll is 889,197.
India has 39.54 million cases and 489,896 deaths; Brazil has 24.04 million cases and 623,145 deaths.
US infectious disease specialist Anthony Fauci sees the Omicron surge as soon peaking.
However, such a decline is unlikely to be uniform across the US.
EU countries have reached an agreement not to impose restrictions on vaccinated travellers.
Hong Kong has reported the highest number of infections in a year.
New Zealand has tightened restrictions due to rising infections.
The WHO has cautioned that Omicron's relatively mild infection rate does not imply the world being out of the danger zone yet.
Globally, over 9.92 billion vaccine doses have been administered across 184 countries at a rate of 36.3 million doses a day.

The Fed this week may signal its first interest rate hike since 2018, paving the way to a March increase.
A reduction in the balance sheet is expected soon after the rate increase.
US Q4:21 GDP this week is expected at 5.3% q/q, from 2.3% q/q in Q3:21
The US January consumer confidence and new home sales are also due out this week.

Canada may start a tightening cycle on Wednesday.
Q4:21 GDP data releases for Germany, France and Spain are due out, likely showing to what extent the Omicron surge hindered economic recovery.
The PMI surveys for January for several countries are also due out today.
The IMF will update its World Economic Outlook tomorrow.
The IMF has warned of downward revisions to its global growth outlook of 4.9% for 2022.

Africa’s Covid-19 cases are at 10.74 million; fatalities are at 236,819.
Morocco has 1.09 million reported cases, Nigeria 252,187, Ghana 155,496, Kenya 320,229.
There are still concerns about the impact of the pandemic on Africa, with vaccination rates still the lowest in the world.
Only 7% of Africa's population has received a jab.

SA has the 19th highest caseload, at 3.581 million; 1,931 new cases were reported yesterday.
Active cases are at 75,627; KwaZulu-Natal leads the way, with 35,386 active cases, followed by the Western Cape with 9,270.
Covid-19 deaths rose by 114 yesterday, to 94,177; 3.411 million people (or 95.3%) have recovered from the virus.
22.025 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 22,567 tests were conducted yesterday; the SA positivity rate is 8,6%.
29.369 million vaccines have been administered in SA to date; 5,120 vaccines were administered yesterday.
16.262 million people, or 40.86% of the adult population, have been fully vaccinated.

This week is the SARB’s first MPC meeting for 2022; a hike in the repo rate of 25 bps, to 4.0%, is likely.
In the spotlight will be any changes to the SARB’s inflation and GDP forecasts.
The SARB’s leading indicator for November is due out this week.
Stats SA will release December PPI; it is expected to have increased to 10.2% y/y, from 9.6% y/y in November.

Brent crude oil is currently at $88.64/bbl; ($87.89/bbl*).
Gold is at $1837/oz ($1835/oz*).
SA CDS 204bps*, Brazil 219bps* and Turkey 524bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 1.76%*, German bund at -0.065%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.65%*, SA’s R186 at 7.62%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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