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Standard Bank Group
South Africa FX 07 November 2025

FX Monthly Chart Book

Shireen Darmalingam

  • The rand traded mostly in a R17.06-R17.51/$ range during October, showing relative stability, compared to volatility earlier this year. By the end of October, the rand hovered around R17.33/$, slightly weaker than its September close of R17.26/$. This represented a 0.4% loss against the dollar in October. It was stronger against both the euro and the pound, gaining 1.5% and 1.9% respectively.
  • Emerging-market currencies were mixed against the dollar in October; the PEN, CLP, RUB, COP and MYR were amongst the best-performing EM currencies, and the ARS, RON, CZK, BGN and KRW the worst-performing.
  • The rand displayed periods of strength mid-month, supported largely by improved global risk sentiment and expectations that major central banks, particularly the US Fed, would maintain a more accommodative monetary policy stance. Dovish comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggesting that the Fed could cut rates at the October FOMC meeting supported the rand mid-October. 
  • The currency was also supported by the benign inflation prognosis and expectations that the SARB’s 3-6% inflation target will in due course be lowered. However, currency gains in October were capped by a stronger dollar towards the end of the month. This came as investors scaled back expectations of further Fed rate cuts. Fed policymakers expressed divergent views on the path of future rate moves, with some saying that a rate cut at the December policy meeting is not a foregone conclusion. In addition, persistent concerns over South Africa’s weak growth outlook, structural constraints, and global risk-off episodes limited investor appetite.
  • While the rand is expected to end the year stronger, the weaker trend earlier this year weakens the average. We see the rand averaging R17.90/$, R20.30/€ and R23.70/£ in 2025. The rand is expected to end the year at R17.10/$, and R17.60/$ in 2026.
 

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