Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
The SA Daily 11 September 2019

July mining up mildly

Shireen Darmalingam

  • Statistics South Africa will release July mining production data tomorrow. Bloomberg consensus expects a mild improvement of 1.0% y/y, after output growth had declined by 4.2% y/y in June and after the decline of 1.5% y/y in May. The June outcome had way undershot expectations of a 2.2% y/y decline. Excluding gold production, mining output declined 2.4% y/y in June, after growth of 2.2% y/y in May.
  • Still, SA’s mining sector contributed positively to GDP in Q2:19 by posting growth of 14.4% q/q (saar) thanks to iron ore, manganese ore and coal. In addition, there was a recovery after the severe electricity shortages of Q1:19.
  • Mining production is however likely to remain subdued in the medium term. Gold production continues to weigh on total mining production as it has increasingly become difficult for gold mines to mine profitably given high wage demands, deeper mines, and electricity supply being both erratic and expensive.
  • The global trade war, which has incurred persistent downward revisions to global growth, too has an impact on SA’s already vulnerable mining sector. The IMF has downwardly revised global growth forecasts, with global growth now at 3.2% for 2019 and 3.5% for 2020, from 3.6% in 2018.

Read PDF