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In the loop 03 December 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.08/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.13/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+0.9%), RUB (+0.6%) and BRL (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the INR (-0.4%), ARS (-0.3%) and ZAR (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Fed Governor Michelle Bowman testified before the House Committee yesterday.
  • Bowman noted that she plans to introduce new rules for banks and stablecoin issuers to promote fair competition among Wall Street institutions, fintechs, and crypto firms. 
  • She added that she would be coordinating with other regulators to develop capital and diversification standards for stablecoin issuers, as mandated by the Genius Act.
  • Bowman also aims to finalise key bank capital reforms, including the Basel III Endgame package and adjustments to the surcharge for the largest banks, to strengthen market liquidity and support more affordable homeownership. 
 
  • UNCTAD published its Trade and Development Report 2025 yesterday.
  • The 2025 report warned that global trade and development are entering a precarious new phase, shaped less by traditional production and commerce and increasingly by financial flows, volatility, and investor sentiment. 
  • The report noted that more than 90% of world trade now depends on financial infrastructure, including credit, liquidity, and currency markets.
  • It added that fluctuations in these financial systems are influencing trade volumes and development outcomes as much as real-economy factors.
  • UNCTAD forecasts a slowdown in global growth to around 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024. 
  • The decline reflects mounting pressures from financial instability, high and volatile financing costs, and geopolitical uncertainty, challenges that disproportionately harm developing economies.
 
  • President Trump said yesterday that he plans to announce his choice for the next Fed chair in early 2026.
  • Trump’s comments offer a clearer timeline of the way forward.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested earlier that the decision might come around Christmas. 
  • Trump has been openly critical of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell and is expected to select a successor who would push more aggressively for lower interest rates.
 
  • The US private sector ADP report for November is due out today; private payrolls are likely to have increased by 10k in November, following an increase of 42k in October.
  • US headline industrial production was likely flat in September.
  • Industrial production is expected to slow down in the months ahead; manufacturers are reporting weakening demand and a shrinking backlog of work.
  • The ISM services PMI for November is also on the cards today; services activity in November likely expanded at a slower pace than in October.
  • The October services PMI reflected an improvement in new orders and business activity.
 
  • Locally, the industry-wide PMI for November is due out today; the index is currently below the 50 benchmark, at 48.8.
  • The BER business confidence for Q4:25 is also due out today; business confidence slipped to 39 in Q3:25.
 
  • Oil prices eased yesterday as markets balanced fading optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal against concerns about global oversupply.
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 16.3% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 60.8% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $62.51/bbl; ($62.45/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4219/oz ($4205/oz*).
  • SA CDS 142bps*, Brazil 139bps* and Turkey 230bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.08%*, German bund at 2.74%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.56%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.45%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 09h15: SA S&P Global industry-wide PMI (November)
  • 11h00: Eurozone HCOB services and composite PMI (November – final)
  • 11h30: UK S&P Global services and composite PMI (November – final)
  • 12h00: Eurozone PPI (October)
  • 14h00: US MBA mortgage applications (28 November)
  • 15h15: US ADP employment report (November)
  • 16h15: US industrial production (September), capacity utilisation (September), manufacturing production (September)
  • 16h45: US S&P Global services and composite PMI (November – final)
  • 17h00: US ISM services PMI (November)
  • SA BER business confidence index (Q4:25)
 

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