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In the loop 22 November 2021

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R15.74/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R15.72/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the PEN (+0.4%), CLP (+0.3%) and COP (+0.2%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the TRY (-2.3%), HUF (-1.6%) and CZK (-1.3%) were amongst the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.
  • Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 257.83 million, while the death toll has surpassed 5.16 million; recoveries are at 232.75 million.
  • The US has 48.59 million cases, accounting for 18% of global cases; the US death toll is 793,651. 
  • India has 34.51 million cases and 463,655 deaths; Brazil has 22.01 million cases and 612,722 deaths.
  • Israel's cases are now at their highest since early September.
  • Cases in France too are surging despite preventative measures.
  • Europe is seeing an increase in anti-lockdown protests.
  • Germany is considering making vaccines compulsory.
  • The UK is extending its booster program to avoid following other countries into new restrictions.
  • Globally, over 7.63 billion doses have been administered across 184 countries at a rate of 33 million doses a day.
  • BOE Governor Andrew Bailey has noted the inflation debate as being finely balanced. 
  • UK economic activity is slowing, while supply-side issues are still stoking prices. 
  • Bailey further noted that many of the inflationary pressures are on the supply side and that altering monetary policy won’t solve these issues directly.
  • The comment increases uncertainty around whether the BOE will raise rates at the December MPC meeting.
  • US President Joe Biden is expected to announce his nominee for Fed chair before Thanksgiving on 25 November.
  • The Fed’s FOMC minutes, initial jobless claims, personal income, consumer sentiment and durable goods orders are due out this week.
  • PMI data for the US and eurozone is due out tomorrow.
  • Manufacturers are still struggling with rising costs amid supply chain constraints.
  • The ECB’s MPC minutes are due out on Thursday.
  • Africa’s Covid-19 cases are at 8.65 million; fatalities are at 222,157.
  • Morocco has 948,923 reported cases, Nigeria 213,589, Ghana 130,827, Kenya 254,710.
  • Only 6% of the African population has been fully vaccinated against Covid.
  • 70% of high-income countries have fully vaccinated at least 40% of their population.
  • SA has the 18th highest caseload, at 2.929 million; 687 new cases were reported yesterday.
  • Active cases are at 19,147; the Western Cape leads the way, with 6,310 active cases, followed by KwaZulu-Natal with 3,193.
  • Covid-19 deaths rose by 2 yesterday, to 89,574; 2.82 million people (or 96.3%) have recovered from the virus.
  • 19.113 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 30,292 tests were conducted yesterday.
  • The SA positivity rate is 3.4%.
  • 24.646 million vaccines have been administered in SA to date; 11,083 vaccines were administered yesterday.
  • The SARB’s leading indicator for September is due out tomorrow and likely continued rising.
  • The BER’s business confidence index for Q4:21 is due out tomorrow.
  • October PPI, due out on Thursday, is expected at 8% y/y, from 7.8% y/y in September.
  • Brent crude oil is down this morning, and up by 52.4% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and down by 2.6% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $78.69/bbl; ($78.89/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1848/oz ($1845/oz*).
  • SA CDS 205bps*, lower than Brazil 238bps* and Turkey 446bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 1.54%*, German bund at -0.342%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.89%*, SA’s R186 at 7.97%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 17h00: Eurozone consumer confidence (November)
  • 17h00: US existing home sales (October)

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