In the loop
What you should know this morning:
- The rand is stronger this morning, at R15.99/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.01/$*).
- EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the PLN (+0.5%), MXN (+0.4%) and the RUB (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-1.9%), CLP (-1.0%) and HUF (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
- Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
- The Fed's Christopher Waller indicated that he would support a further 75 bps rate increase at the FOMC meeting in July should US economic data meet expectations.
- He called US recession fears "a bit overblown".
- Janet Yellen said that "unacceptably high" prices are likely to persist this year but strong personal finances should help prevent a US recession.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before lawmakers this week and is likely to provide a detailed explanation for last week's 75 bps increase in rates.
- He is also likely to face questions on quantitative easing.
- Several Fed policymakers, including Charles Evans, Patrick Harker and James Bullard, will speak this week.
- BOE policymakers too will speak this week.
- US existing home sales for May data (tomorrow) may show softness in the US housing market.
- New homes sales data for May are also due this week.
- The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is due out on Friday.
- The central banks of Brazil and Chile will release minutes of their latest MPC meetings this week.
- The Bank of Mexico is likely to hike rates this week.
- Turkey’s central bank will meet on Thursday and is expected to keep rates unchanged.
- Eurozone and UK PMIs for June (on Thursday) may show further weakening in their respective manufacturing and services sectors.
- Germany's Ifo survey and UK retail sales are due out on Friday.
- SA has the 30th highest Covid caseload, at 3.986 million; 995 new cases were reported yesterday.
- 18.271 million people, or 45.91% of the SA adult population, have been fully vaccinated.
- The SARB leading indicator for April is due out this week; the index increased to 128 pts in March, from 127.2 pts in February.
- CPI for May is due out on Wednesday and likely breached the upper limit of the target band by rising to 6.1% y/y, from April’s increase of 5.9% y/y.
- On a m/m basis, CPI likely increased by 0.3% in May, from an increase of 0.6% in April.
- Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 45.5% year-to-date.
- The gold price is up this morning, and up by 0.8% year-to-date.
- Brent crude oil is currently at $113.16/bbl; ($113.12/bbl*).
- Gold is at $1843/oz ($1839/oz*).
- SA CDS 288bps*, Brazil 283bps* and Turkey 826bps*.
- Yields: US 10yr at 3.22%*, German bund at 1.66%* and SA 10-year generic at 10.69%*, SA’s R186 at 8.67%*.
* Denotes Friday’s close.
Key events and data:
- No data releases.