In the loop 10 December 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.03/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.06/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ZAR (+0.1%), PLN (+0.1%) and CZK (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the MYR (-0.2%), KRW (-0.1%) and IDR (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Central bank watch: the US FOMC is expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 bps today.
The new dot plot is expected to be largely unchanged from September’s, signalling one rate cut (25 bps) in 2026, and the pace of rate reductions will depend on the jobs data.
The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged.
The Brazilian Central Bank is also expected to keep rates on hold today.

BOE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said yesterday that the case for cutting interest rates is now stronger than it was in November.
He expects borrowing costs to eventually settle around 3%.
Ramsden was among the four MPC members who voted last month to reduce the interest rate to 3.75%, from 4%.
The next policy decision is due on 18 December.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said yesterday that, if appointed as next Fed Chair, he would rely on his own judgment when deciding whether to cut interest rates.
He argued that there is “plenty of room” to lower rates in the coming months and suggested that the Fed could cut by more than the 25 bps currently expected.
He also emphasised that he would not yield to political pressure from President Trump in pushing for rate cuts.
Hassett has emerged as the leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May next year.

President Trump signalled yesterday that he would judge a new Fed Chair by whether they move immediately to cut interest rates.
He indicated that a swift reduction in borrowing costs would serve as a key litmus test for his chosen central bank leader.
His remarks offered a clear message to potential nominees about the policy direction he expects from the next Fed Chair.
Kevin Hassett, the White House National Economic Council director and a contender for the role, said last month that the data supports cutting rates “right now”.

The US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) edged up in October to 7.67 million, the highest level in five months and slightly above September’s 7.66 million.
This modest increase was concentrated in a few sectors, including retail, wholesale trade, and health care.
Layoffs also rose, reaching 1.85 million, the highest since early 2023, while hiring fell by 218,000.
Overall, the data indicates a cooling labour market, though not as sharply as some alternative indicators imply.
The Conference Board’s leading economic index declined 0.3% m/m in September, following a 0.5% drop in August.

Locally, October’s retail sales, scheduled for release today, are expected to reflect growth of 2.5% y/y, from a 3.1% y/y increase in September.
On a m/m basis, sales flatlined in September.

Brent crude oil is currently at $61.99/bbl; ($61.94/bbl*).
Gold is at $4203/oz ($4208/oz*).
SA CDS 140bps*, Brazil 140bps* and Turkey 228bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.18%*, German bund at 2.85%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.59%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.47%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF