In the loop 19 September 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.36/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.34/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.5%) and ZAR (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the PLN (-0.8%), KRW (-0.7%) and RON (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the BOJ held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% today.
The central bank noted that it was necessary to continue to monitor the impact of US tariff policies on Japan.

The UK GfK consumer confidence index fell to -19 in September, from -17 in August.
Economic outlook expectations measure also deteriorated in September, to -32, from -30 in August.
The personal finances outlook in the next 13 months gauge came in at 4 in September, down slightly from 5 in August.
The climate for major purchases gauge fell to -16 in September, from -13 in August.
UK retail sales are likely to have increased by 0.4% m/m in August, after having increased by 0.6% m/m in July.
On a y/y basis, sales are likely to have increased by 0.6% in August, from a 1.1% increase in July.

ECB Governing Council member Luis de Guindos stated yesterday that the risk of inflation undershooting the ECB’s target is not elevated.
He noted that policymakers are prepared to tolerate “small deviations” from the inflation goal, particularly if such deviations are expected to be transitory.
Guindos also indicated that inflation risks are currently balanced.
Earlier this week, he remarked that interest rates are appropriate for the current economic environment but emphasised that the ECB remains ready to act should conditions change.

President Trump has asked the US Supreme Court to let him remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook while she contests his attempt to oust her.
He urged the court to temporarily block a Washington federal judge’s ruling that has allowed Cook to remain in her role for now.
The appeal came just one day after Cook voted in favour of cutting interest rates at the Fed’s FOMC meeting.
The case carries major implications for the Fed’s independence.

Locally, it’s a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
Trade conditions in SA, as measured by the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI), remained subdued in August.
The trade activity index fell sharply to 42, down from 52 in July, reversing the positive momentum seen in March, April, and July.
SACCI attributed the deterioration to global tariff risks, weak domestic economic performance, and persistently high unemployment.
The organisation noted that “the reality of the real economy under considerable stress and its effect on trade” became evident again in August.
Forward-looking sentiment also weakened, with the expected trade conditions index slipping to 58 in August, from 60 in July.
SACCI emphasised the urgency of intervention, stating that “actions need to be urgently taken to address the present negative business and economic impact and urgently direct policy to prevent the situation from escalating.”

Brent crude oil is currently at $67.35/bbl; ($67.44/bbl*).
Gold is at $3657/oz ($3644/oz*).
SA CDS 147bps*, Brazil 126bps* and Turkey 238bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.10%*, German bund at 2.72%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.28%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.17%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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