Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Corporate Commissioned Research
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
South Africa FX 05 December 2025

FX Monthly Chart Book

Shireen Darmalingam

  • The rand traded in a R16.95-R17.57/$ range during November. By the end of November, the rand hovered around R17.11/$, stronger than its October close of R17.33/$. This represented a 1.3% gain against the dollar in November. It was stronger against both the euro and the pound, gaining 0.8% and 0.7% respectively.
  • Emerging-market currencies were mixed against the dollar in November; the RUB, COP, HUF, CZK and CLP were amongst the best-performing EM currencies, and the KRW, TWD, TRY, INR, and ARS were amongst the worst-performing EM currencies.
  • The rand exhibited notable volatility during November but ultimately strengthened against the dollar, with USD/ZAR moving below the R17.00/$ threshold, albeit briefly, after reaching an early-month high near R17.58/$. The appreciation was primarily driven by a combination of global and domestic factors. Externally, broad-based dollar weakness, on the back of heightened expectations of Fed rate cuts, provided significant support. Domestically, sentiment improved following SA’s removal from the FATF grey list, which marked a significant improvement in the country’s financial integrity profile, reducing perceived compliance risks and encouraging capital inflows, as well as record-high foreign exchange reserves. Positive sentiment was reinforced by the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) credibility following its 21 November decision to cut the repo rates by 25 bps while introducing a stricter 3% inflation target, signalling structural policy discipline. The currency’s recovery was supported by improving fiscal signals.
  • Despite these tailwinds, the rand faced intermittent pressure from structural challenges, including weak labour market conditions and subdued manufacturing output. Overall, the rand ended November firmer than its early-November levels, reflecting a favourable mix of global dollar softness, improved local fundamentals, and resilient investor risk appetite.
  • While the rand is expected to end this year stronger, the weaker trend earlier this year weakens the average. We see the rand averaging R17.90/$, R20.20/€ and R23.60/£ in 2025. The rand is expected to end the year at R16.90/$, and R17.30/$ in 2026.
 

Read PDF