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In the loop 09 June 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.76/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R17.78/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the BRL (+0.5%), ARS (+0.4%) and MXN (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-2.2%), PEN (-0.6%) and PLN (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • Japan’s revised Q1:25 data saw a smaller contraction than initially estimated, on the back better inventory and consumption figures in Q1:25.
 
  • The UK monthly GDP for April, due on Thursday, is expected to have contracted 0.1% m/m, after having increased 0.2% m/m in March.
  • The contraction is expected on the back of President Trump’s announcement of tariffs.
  • While a trade deal has since been reached with the US, levies will still act as a drag on economic activity over the next year.
  • UK labour data is also on the cards this week and is expected to indicate a further slowdown in wage growth for the three months ended in April.
  • Eurozone industrial production for April, due on Friday, is likely to have declined as producers rushed to finalize orders in the prior month, fearing higher tariffs.
 
  • The US May CPI will be in focus this week (Wednesday) and is likely to come in at 2.5% y/y, following a 2.3% y/y increase in April.
  • On a m/m basis, headline CPI is likely to have increased by 0.2% in May, matching April’s increase.
  • The NFIB small business optimism index for May, due out tomorrow, is expected to have remained unchanged, at 95.8.
  • PPI for May, out on Thursday, is expected at 2.6% y/y, from 2.4% y/y in April. 
  • The University of Michigan sentiment index for June is scheduled for release on Friday.
  • The sentiment index is likely to have improved to 53.5 in June, from 52.2 in May.
  • The sentiment index will be closely watched for signs of a downtick in long-run inflation expectations.
 
  • Locally, manufacturing production for April is due out tomorrow; production is expected to have declined by 4.8% y/y in April, after having fallen by 0.8% y/y in March. 
  • On a m/m basis, manufacturing production is likely to have increased by 0.9% in April, following a 2.2% decline in March.
  • Mining production for April is due out on Thursday; production is expected to have declined by 4.0% y/y in April, following a 2.8% y/y decline in March.
  • Mining production increased by 3.5% m/m in March.
  • The SACCI business confidence index for May is also due out this week.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 11.0% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 26.2% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $66.40/bbl; ($66.47/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3311/oz ($3310/oz*).
  • SA CDS 194bps*, Brazil 158bps* and Turkey 301bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.50%*, German bund at 2.57%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.11%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.06%*.
 

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

  •  16h00: US wholesale sales, inventories (April)
 

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