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In the loop 21 January 2022

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R15.21/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R15.16/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday, with the ZAR (+1.0%), CLP (+0.9%) and PEN (+0.7%) among biggest gainers, the RUB (-0.6%%), HUF (-0.3%) and RON (-0.2%) among biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
  • Japan’s CPI increased in December, to 0.8% y/y, from 0.6% y/y in November, due to higher energy costs and food prices.
  • Dec CPI excluding food was 0.5% y/y, matching November’s outcome.
  • The BOJ has revised its inflation forecasts earlier this week to 1.1% for the fiscal year starting in April, from 0.9%.
  • The UK GfK consumer confidence fell in January to -19 pts from -15 pts in December.
  • The GfK noted that the decline comes as cost-of-living concerns now surpass pandemic concerns.
  • Th drop in confidence was due to concerns over personal finances and the economic situation.
  • The easing of Covid restrictions should however have somewhat supported confidence.
  • Still, consumers now face rising prices, higher fuels bills, and possibly interest rates hikes.
  • Eurozone consumer confidence for January is also expected to have slipped.
  • Europe’s rising energy costs likely weighed on consumer confidence, too.
  • In addition, Omicron public health restrictions are proving limiting. 
  • SA has the 19th highest caseload, at 3.572 million; 3,962 new cases were reported yesterday.
  • Active cases are at 84,487; KwaZulu-Natal leads the way, with 34,557 active cases, followed by the Western Cape with 12,210.
  • Covid-19 deaths rose by 139 yesterday, to 93,846; 3.394 million people (or 95%) have recovered from the virus.
  • 21.933 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 37,484 tests were conducted yesterday; the SA positivity rate is 10,6%.
  • 29.251 million vaccines have been administered in SA to date; 82,098 vaccines were administered yesterday.
  • 16.208 million people, or 40.73% of the adult population, have been fully vaccinated.
  • Brent crude oil is down this morning, and up by 11.6% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 0.6% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $86.80/bbl; ($88.38/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1840/oz ($1842/oz*).
  • SA CDS 202bps*, Brazil 214bps* and Turkey 524bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 1.80%*, German bund at -0.024%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.70%*, SA’s R186 at 7.67%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 17h00: Eurozone consumer confidence (January)
  • 17h00: US leading index (December)

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