In the loop 22 September 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.35/$, after closing unchanged on Friday (R17.34/$*).
EM currencies were largely down on Friday; the KRW (-0.7%), HUF (-0.5%) and IDR (-0.5%) were the biggest losers; the COP was up by 0.8%.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.

Central bank watch: the Riksbank’s interest rate decision is finely balanced between cutting and holding steady tomorrow.
Nigeria’s central bank is anticipated to cut rates by 25 bps, to 27.25%, as disinflationary pressures continue.
The Swiss National Bank is expected to hold rates at 0% on Thursday, though markets still see negative rates as likely by year-end.

China’s commercial banks kept loan prime rates steady today, tracking the PBOC’s hold on its policy rate.

Eurozone and UK PMI data for September will be released this week.
The Eurozone composite PMI, out tomorrow, will deliver the final month’s reading for Q3:25 and give a clearer picture of the region’s performance in the quarter.
The UK composite PMI, also due tomorrow, is expected to show a continued recovery.
Germany’s IFO sentiment index for September, due out on Wednesday, will shed more light on the economy’s resilience amid disruptions from US tariffs.

US new home sales for August, due out on Wednesday, are expected to show a 0.3% m/m decrease, following a 0.6% m/m decline in July.
On Thursday, the third estimate of Q2:25 GDP will confirm that growth was largely supported by weaker imports.
Existing home sales for August, also out on Thursday, are projected to fall by 1.4% m/m, after a 2.0% m/m drop in July.
The University of Michigan’s September sentiment index (final estimate), due on Friday, is expected to have held steady, at 55.4.
Confidence was likely buoyed by the Fed’s 17 September interest rate cut, which Chair Jerome Powell described as a “risk-management” move.
Also on Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE deflator, is forecast to have risen 0.2% m/m in August, from July’s 0.3% gain.

Locally, the SARB’s leading indicator for July is on the cards tomorrow; the index increased to 111.7 in June.
The August PPI is due out on Thursday and is expected at 1.8% y/y, after having increased by 1.5% y/y in July.
On a m/m basis, PPI is likely to have decreased by 0.1% in August, following a 0.7% increase in July.
The BER’s consumer confidence index for Q3:25 is also scheduled for release on Thursday; consumer confidence improved to -10 in Q2:25.

Brent crude oil is currently at $67.15/bbl; ($66.68/bbl*).
Gold is at $3697/oz ($3685/oz*).
SA CDS 149bps*, Brazil 126bps* and Turkey 238bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.10%*, German bund at 2.41%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.27%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.16%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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