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In the loop 14 October 2021

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand remains stronger this morning, at R14.79/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R14.80/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the PEN (+1.7%), ZAR (+1.0%) and CLP (+0.8%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the COP (-0.6%), TRY (-0.4%) and RUB (-0.2%) were amongst the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.
  • Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 239.94 million, while the death toll has surpassed 4.88 million; recoveries are at 217.29 million.
  • The US has 45.54 million cases, accounting for 18% of global cases; the US death toll is 739,778. 
  • India has 34.02 million cases and 451,469 deaths; Brazil has 21.59 million cases and 601,643 deaths.
  • A US study has found that mixing vaccines creates as much, or more, antibodies, compared with using the same brand as the booster.
  • Pfizer is expected make an application in Australia for its vaccine for children as young as 5. 
  • Infections among British children are "high and rising”, drawing attention to the slow rollout of vaccines for those aged 12 and above.
  • The US FOMC September meeting minutes showed that policymakers are broadly in agreement that tapering should start in mid-November or December. 
  • It is expected that the pandemic stimulus could end by mid-2022. 
  • The FOMC has raised the short-term inflation outlook.
  • However, several policymakers still see recent price increases as being transitory.
  • The FOMC does not expect supply chains to be fully restored until next year or later.
  • They also discussed whether US labour supply would bounce back to 2019 levels.
  • The EU and UK are entering a new round of negotiations over trade barriers in Northern Ireland, which may defuse tensions.
  • The EU said that it could cut customs checks into their territory by half as well as reduce sanitary inspections on many retail goods.
  • SA has the 17th highest caseload, at 2.913 million; 942 new cases were reported yesterday.
  • Active cases are at 22,799; KwaZulu-Natal leads the way, with 8,456 active cases, followed by the Western Cape with 4,179.
  • Covid-19 deaths rose by 37 yesterday, to 88,466; 2.802 million people (or 96.2%) have recovered from the virus.
  • 18.055 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 38,969 tests were conducted yesterday.
  • The positivity rate is 2.4%.
  • 19.668 million vaccines have been administered to date in SA; 196,696 vaccines were administered yesterday.
  • Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 61.8% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and down by 5.7% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $83.79/bbl; ($83.18/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1790/oz ($1792/oz*).
  • SA CDS 217bps*, higher than Brazil 210bps* and lower than Turkey 441bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 1.53%*, German bund at -0.127%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.81%*, SA’s R186 at 7.80%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 14h30: US initial jobless claims (9 October), PPI (September)

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