In the loop 11 November 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.16/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.14/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ZAR (+0.9%), COP (+0.8%) and CLP (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.4%), BGN (-0.1%) and ARS (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

UK labour market data is in the spotlight today and is likely to show a further slowdown in private sector wage growth for the three months to September.
Private sector pay growth is expected to ease to 4.2% y/y, down from 4.4% y/y, extending a recent downward trend.
The ILO unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 4.9% in the three months to September, from 4.8% in the three months to August.
Response rates to the labour force survey remain historically low, despite improvements.

The Eurozone ZEW expectations survey for November is due out today, the index decreased to 22.7 in October, from 26.1 in September.
The German ZEW economic expectations index for November is also due out today; the index is likely to have increased to 41.0 in November, from 39.3 in October.
Several ECB policymakers are due to speak on the economy and monetary policy today.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said yesterday that he expects the US economy to rebound strongly early in 2026.
He noted that current Fed policy is approaching a level that no longer exerts downward pressure on inflation.
Musalem cautioned that policymakers should proceed carefully with any further rate cuts in the coming months.
Musalem pointed to rising financial strain among low- and middle-income households that are struggling to keep up with higher living costs, as evidence that consumers’ purchasing power is being eroded by inflation.

After two rate cuts earlier this year, Fed officials remain divided on the path ahead.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran argued that better-than-expected inflation data and ongoing labour market weakness justify a third consecutive rate cut at the December FOMC meeting.
In his view, a 50 bps reduction remains “appropriate” on the back of the lack of new economic data during the US government shutdown.
He added that, at a minimum, the Fed should cut rates by 25 bps.

The US NFIB small business optimism index, scheduled for release today, likely edged down to 98.3 in October, from 98.8 in September.
The data will garner more attention in the absence of key economic data due to the US government shutdown.
However, all eyes are on any progress on the shutdown being lifted soon following positive news yesterday that the US Senate voted 60-40 to advance a bill aimed at ending the government shutdown.

Locally, Stats SA releases the Quarterly Labour Force Survey for Q3:25 today; the unemployment rate increased to 33.2% in Q2:25.
Manufacturing production for September is also on the cards; production is expected to have decreased by 0.3% y/y in September, after having declined by 1.5% y/y in August.
On a m/m basis, manufacturing production is likely to have increased by 0.7% in September, following a 0.4% increase in August.

Brent crude oil is currently at $63.87/bbl; ($64.06/bbl*).
Gold is at $4133/oz ($4115/oz*).
SA CDS 151bps*, Brazil 141bps* and Turkey 241bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.11%*, German bund at 2.66%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.85%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.73%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

09h00: UK ILO unemployment rate (September), average weekly earnings (September)
11h30: SA unemployment rate (Q3:25)
12h00: Eurozone ZEW survey expectations (November)
13h00: SA manufacturing production (September)
13h00: US NFIB small business optimism index (October)

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