In the loop 01 December 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.14/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R17.11/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the RUB (+0.6%), BRL (+0.5%) and CZK (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the KRW (-0.3%), COP (-0.3%) and TWD (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the Reserve Bank of India is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps, to 5.25%, on Friday, supported by record-low inflation, in an effort to bolster growth and guide prices back toward target.

China’s factory activity improved slightly in November but remained in contraction, extending a record streak of declines as the economic slowdown deepens.
The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2, from 49.0 in October.
Both the services and composite PMIs slipped into contraction in November.

Eurozone inflation likely held steady in November, at 2.1% y/y, just above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.
In the UK, annual house price growth is expected to have eased to 1.3% in November, further down from 2.4% in October.

The US ISM manufacturing PMI for November is due out today and is likely to have increased modestly to 49.0, from 48.7 in October.
Industrial production, scheduled for release on Wednesday, was likely flat in September.
Industrial production is expected to slow down in the months ahead; manufacturers are reporting weakening demand and a shrinking backlog of work.
The ISM services PMI for November is also on the cards for Wednesday; services activity in November likely expanded at a slower pace than the previous month.
Personal income and spending for September is due out on Thursday.
Income is likely to have increased by 0.3% m/m in September, from a 0.4% m/m increase in August.
Spending is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in September, following a 0.6% m/m increase in August.

Locally, the BER manufacturing PMI for November is due for release today; the index slipped to 49.2 in October, from 50.8 in September.
The November Naamsa vehicle sales are also on the cards today; vehicle sales increased by 16.0% y/y in October.
GDP growth for Q3:25 is in the spotlight tomorrow and is expected to have increased by 0.5% q/q (sa), after having increased by 0.8% q/q (sa) in Q2:25.
On a y/y basis, GDP growth is expected at 1.8% in Q3:25, after having increased 0.6% in Q2:25.
The industry-wide PMI for November is due out on Wednesday; the index is currently below the 50 benchmark at 48.8.
The BER business confidence for Q4:25 is also due out on Wednesday; business confidence slipped to 39 in Q3:25.
The current account for Q3:25 is scheduled for release on Thursday; the deficit is expected to have widened to 1.2% of GDP in Q3:25, from a deficit of 1.1% of GDP in Q2:25.
Electricity production and consumption for October are due for release on Thursday.
The SARB’s gross and net reserves for November are scheduled for release on Friday.
Gross reserves were $71.55bn in October, and net reserves $69.36bn.

Brent crude oil is currently at $63.51/bbl; ($63.20/bbl*).
Gold is at $4223/oz ($4239/oz*).
SA CDS 144bps*, Brazil 141bps* and Turkey 237bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.04%*, German bund at 2.68%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.68%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.48%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

11h00:SA BER manufacturing PMI (November)
11h00: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMI (November – final)
11h30: UK consumer credit (October), S&P Global manufacturing PMI (November – final)
16h45: US S&P Global manufacturing PMI (November – final)
17h00: US ISM manufacturing (November)
SA Naamsa vehicle sales (November)

Read PDF