In the loop 19 January 2022

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is slightly weaker this morning, at R15.53/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R15.52/$*).
EM currencies were largely down yesterday; the HUF (-1.4%), RUB (-1.1%) and PLN (-1.0%) were amongst the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are down, while the Hang Seng is up.

The WHO has commented that Omicron might not be the last variant.
Comprehensive strategies are still needed to reduce severe disease, deaths, and transmission.
Infections in Germany topped 100,000 yesterday.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to announce plans to lift Covid restrictions in England.
Work-from-home guidance and the use of Covid passes are expected to end in England.

US housing starts for December likely pulled back, after an 11.8% surge in November.
An outbreak of multiple tornados had disrupted activity across several US states.
Building permits for December too likely slipped.

SA has the 19th highest caseload, at 3.564 million; 3,658 new cases were reported yesterday.
Active cases are at 90,633; KwaZulu-Natal leads the way, with 34,179 active cases, followed by the Western Cape with 19,189.
Covid-19 deaths rose by 100 yesterday, to 93,551; 3.380 million people (or 94.8%) have recovered from the virus.
21.855 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 39,654 tests were conducted yesterday; the SA positivity rate is 9.2%.
29.084 million vaccines have been administered in SA to date; 85,885 vaccines were administered yesterday.
16.125 million people, or 40.52% of the adult population, have been fully vaccinated.

SA December CPI likely increased to 5.7% y/y, from 5.5% in November.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected at 0.4%, from a 0.5% increase in October.
November retail sales will shed light on the SA consumer; sales likely increased by 2.0% y/y in November, from 1.8% y/y in October.

Oil prices have increased to a 7-year high after an outage on a pipeline from Iraq to Turkey.
This adds to concerns about a tight supply outlook amid geopolitical tensions in Russia and the UAE.
Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 13.7% year-to-date.
The gold price is up this morning, and down by 0.8% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $88.42/bbl; ($87.51/bbl*).
Gold is at $1814/oz ($1812/oz*).
SA CDS 215bps*, Brazil 227bps* and Turkey 556bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 1.87%*, German bund at -0.018%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.85%*, SA’s R186 at 7.82%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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